EVALUATION AND PROGNOSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC SITUATION FOR LYME BORRELIOSIS IN VLADIMIR REGION

Aim. Evaluation and prognosis of epidemiologic process for Lyme borreliosis (Lb) in Vladimir region. Materials and methods. Report form No. 2 «Data on infectious and parasitic diseases». Territorial differentiation of morbidity was carried out in ArcView 3.1 program. The following climate parameters were used: average monthly air temperature, number of days of the month with precipitation, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, size of snow cover and content of oxygen in air in every month for the period of2004 - 2012. Statistical treatment, correlation-regression analysis was carried out in Statistica program. Results. 1211 cases of Lb morbidity were registered for the period of 2005 - 2012 in Vladimir region, that had increased by 46%. A territorial differentiation of the disease is noted. Average monthly temperature of July and September of the preceding year were established to be the most significant parameters, that affect the epidemiologic process. A mathematical model, that can be used for prognosis of epidemiologic situation for Lb, was constructed. Conclusion. The mathematical model shows, that increased values of morbidity can be expected, if July of the preceding year was fairly warm, and September, on the contrary, differed by reduced values of air temperature.

Vladimir region, Lyme borreliosis, prognosis